{
  "_meta": {
    "generated": "2026-06-19",
    "generator": "first-principles-worksheet.py",
    "note": "Source of truth for first-principles interactives. Re-run to regenerate."
  },
  "bitcoin_issuance": {
    "genesis_subsidy_btc": 50,
    "halving_interval_blocks": 210000,
    "blocks_per_year_assumed": 52560,
    "terminal_supply_btc": 20999999.9769,
    "halvings_until_zero_subsidy": 33,
    "schedule": [
      {
        "epoch": 0,
        "approx_start_year": 2009,
        "block_subsidy_btc": 50.0,
        "stock_at_epoch_start_btc": 0.0,
        "annual_new_supply_btc": 2628000.0,
        "annual_inflation_pct": null,
        "stock_to_flow": 0.0,
        "cumulative_supply_btc": 10500000.0
      },
      {
        "epoch": 1,
        "approx_start_year": 2012,
        "block_subsidy_btc": 25.0,
        "stock_at_epoch_start_btc": 10500000.0,
        "annual_new_supply_btc": 1314000.0,
        "annual_inflation_pct": 12.5143,
        "stock_to_flow": 7.99,
        "cumulative_supply_btc": 15750000.0
      },
      {
        "epoch": 2,
        "approx_start_year": 2016,
        "block_subsidy_btc": 12.5,
        "stock_at_epoch_start_btc": 15750000.0,
        "annual_new_supply_btc": 657000.0,
        "annual_inflation_pct": 4.1714,
        "stock_to_flow": 23.97,
        "cumulative_supply_btc": 18375000.0
      },
      {
        "epoch": 3,
        "approx_start_year": 2020,
        "block_subsidy_btc": 6.25,
        "stock_at_epoch_start_btc": 18375000.0,
        "annual_new_supply_btc": 328500.0,
        "annual_inflation_pct": 1.7878,
        "stock_to_flow": 55.94,
        "cumulative_supply_btc": 19687500.0
      },
      {
        "epoch": 4,
        "approx_start_year": 2024,
        "block_subsidy_btc": 3.125,
        "stock_at_epoch_start_btc": 19687500.0,
        "annual_new_supply_btc": 164250.0,
        "annual_inflation_pct": 0.8343,
        "stock_to_flow": 119.86,
        "cumulative_supply_btc": 20343750.0
      },
      {
        "epoch": 5,
        "approx_start_year": 2028,
        "block_subsidy_btc": 1.5625,
        "stock_at_epoch_start_btc": 20343750.0,
        "annual_new_supply_btc": 82125.0,
        "annual_inflation_pct": 0.4037,
        "stock_to_flow": 247.72,
        "cumulative_supply_btc": 20671875.0
      },
      {
        "epoch": 6,
        "approx_start_year": 2032,
        "block_subsidy_btc": 0.78125,
        "stock_at_epoch_start_btc": 20671875.0,
        "annual_new_supply_btc": 41062.5,
        "annual_inflation_pct": 0.1986,
        "stock_to_flow": 503.42,
        "cumulative_supply_btc": 20835937.5
      },
      {
        "epoch": 7,
        "approx_start_year": 2036,
        "block_subsidy_btc": 0.390625,
        "stock_at_epoch_start_btc": 20835937.5,
        "annual_new_supply_btc": 20531.25,
        "annual_inflation_pct": 0.0985,
        "stock_to_flow": 1014.84,
        "cumulative_supply_btc": 20917968.75
      },
      {
        "epoch": 8,
        "approx_start_year": 2040,
        "block_subsidy_btc": 0.1953125,
        "stock_at_epoch_start_btc": 20917968.75,
        "annual_new_supply_btc": 10265.625,
        "annual_inflation_pct": 0.0491,
        "stock_to_flow": 2037.67,
        "cumulative_supply_btc": 20958984.375
      },
      {
        "epoch": 9,
        "approx_start_year": 2044,
        "block_subsidy_btc": 0.09765625,
        "stock_at_epoch_start_btc": 20958984.375,
        "annual_new_supply_btc": 5132.8125,
        "annual_inflation_pct": 0.0245,
        "stock_to_flow": 4083.33,
        "cumulative_supply_btc": 20979492.1875
      },
      {
        "epoch": 10,
        "approx_start_year": 2048,
        "block_subsidy_btc": 0.04882812,
        "stock_at_epoch_start_btc": 20979492.1875,
        "annual_new_supply_btc": 2566.406,
        "annual_inflation_pct": 0.0122,
        "stock_to_flow": 8174.66,
        "cumulative_supply_btc": 20989746.0927
      }
    ]
  },
  "stock_to_flow_comparison": {
    "note": "S2F is a scarcity descriptor (stock / annual new flow), NOT a price model. Gold/silver/USD figures are widely-cited estimates with wide error bars; see facts file for sourcing. The PlanB S2F *price* model is excluded on purpose, it diverged from realized price by >500% after 2023.",
    "bitcoin_post_2024_epoch4": 119.86,
    "bitcoin_post_2028_epoch5": 247.72,
    "gold_estimate": 60,
    "silver_estimate": 22,
    "us_dollar_estimate": 4
  },
  "purchasing_power": {
    "formula": "PP(n) = (1 / (1 + r))^n, r = annual inflation as decimal",
    "presets": {
      "us_dollar_2_pct_target": {
        "rate_pct": 2.0,
        "label": "2%/yr (Fed long-run target)",
        "price_doubling_years": 35.003,
        "pp_after_10y_pct": 82.0348,
        "pp_after_30y_pct": 55.2071,
        "curve_30y_pct": [
          100.0,
          98.0392,
          96.1169,
          94.2322,
          92.3845,
          90.5731,
          88.7971,
          87.056,
          85.349,
          83.6755,
          82.0348,
          80.4263,
          78.8493,
          77.3033,
          75.7875,
          74.3015,
          72.8446,
          71.4163,
          70.0159,
          68.6431,
          67.2971,
          65.9776,
          64.6839,
          63.4156,
          62.1721,
          60.9531,
          59.7579,
          58.5862,
          57.4375,
          56.3112,
          55.2071
        ]
      },
      "us_dollar_avg_since_1971": {
        "rate_pct": 4.0,
        "label": "~4%/yr (US CPI avg since 1971)",
        "price_doubling_years": 17.673,
        "pp_after_10y_pct": 67.5564,
        "pp_after_30y_pct": 30.8319,
        "curve_30y_pct": [
          100.0,
          96.1538,
          92.4556,
          88.8996,
          85.4804,
          82.1927,
          79.0315,
          75.9918,
          73.069,
          70.2587,
          67.5564,
          64.9581,
          62.4597,
          60.0574,
          57.7475,
          55.5265,
          53.3908,
          51.3373,
          49.3628,
          47.4642,
          45.6387,
          43.8834,
          42.1955,
          40.5726,
          39.0121,
          37.5117,
          36.0689,
          34.6817,
          33.3477,
          32.0651,
          30.8319
        ]
      },
      "high_inflation_10_pct": {
        "rate_pct": 10.0,
        "label": "10%/yr (elevated)",
        "price_doubling_years": 7.273,
        "pp_after_10y_pct": 38.5543,
        "pp_after_30y_pct": 5.7309,
        "curve_30y_pct": [
          100.0,
          90.9091,
          82.6446,
          75.1315,
          68.3013,
          62.0921,
          56.4474,
          51.3158,
          46.6507,
          42.4098,
          38.5543,
          35.0494,
          31.8631,
          28.9664,
          26.3331,
          23.9392,
          21.7629,
          19.7845,
          17.9859,
          16.3508,
          14.8644,
          13.5131,
          12.2846,
          11.1678,
          10.1526,
          9.2296,
          8.3905,
          7.6278,
          6.9343,
          6.3039,
          5.7309
        ]
      },
      "argentina_recent": {
        "rate_pct": 100.0,
        "label": "~100%/yr (recent Argentina order-of-magnitude)",
        "price_doubling_years": 1.0,
        "pp_after_10y_pct": 0.0977,
        "pp_after_30y_pct": 0.0,
        "curve_30y_pct": [
          100.0,
          50.0,
          25.0,
          12.5,
          6.25,
          3.125,
          1.5625,
          0.7812,
          0.3906,
          0.1953,
          0.0977,
          0.0488,
          0.0244,
          0.0122,
          0.0061,
          0.0031,
          0.0015,
          0.0008,
          0.0004,
          0.0002,
          0.0001,
          0.0,
          0.0,
          0.0,
          0.0,
          0.0,
          0.0,
          0.0,
          0.0,
          0.0,
          0.0
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "roman_denarius": {
    "series": [
      {
        "year_label": "27 BCE",
        "year_num": -27,
        "emperor": "Augustus",
        "silver_pct": 95
      },
      {
        "year_label": "64 CE",
        "year_num": 64,
        "emperor": "Nero",
        "silver_pct": 80
      },
      {
        "year_label": "96 CE",
        "year_num": 96,
        "emperor": "Domitian",
        "silver_pct": 72
      },
      {
        "year_label": "150 CE",
        "year_num": 150,
        "emperor": "Antoninus Pius",
        "silver_pct": 65
      },
      {
        "year_label": "200 CE",
        "year_num": 200,
        "emperor": "Septimius Severus",
        "silver_pct": 50
      },
      {
        "year_label": "220 CE",
        "year_num": 220,
        "emperor": "Elagabalus",
        "silver_pct": 35
      },
      {
        "year_label": "260 CE",
        "year_num": 260,
        "emperor": "Gallienus",
        "silver_pct": 15
      },
      {
        "year_label": "274 CE",
        "year_num": 274,
        "emperor": "Aurelian",
        "silver_pct": 2
      }
    ],
    "decay": {
      "span_years": 301,
      "start_silver_pct": 95,
      "end_silver_pct": 2,
      "compound_annual_decline_pct": -1.274
    }
  }
}